When is the right time to buy a new/emerging technology?

General Tech Technology & Software 2 years ago

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Posted on 16 Aug 2022, this text provides information on Technology & Software related to General Tech. Please note that while accuracy is prioritized, the data presented might not be entirely correct or up-to-date. This information is offered for general knowledge and informational purposes only, and should not be considered as a substitute for professional advice.

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manpreet Tuteehub forum best answer Best Answer 2 years ago


I am thinking about buying solar panels for my roof.

Solar technology has not really matured yet and every newer generation is more effective and less expensive.

In April, for example, Tesla will start selling its brand new solar tiles, Elon Musk is quoted as saying "It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even take the value of electricity into account".

Suppose I buy these solar tiles in April. It will still be quite an investment. The next generation of this technology will most likely be even cheaper and more efficient, so do I wait for that one? How about the one after that? Or the one after that?

How do I decide when to buy into an emerging technology? Do I just guess when the best time is or is there an actual theory behind this sort of decision?

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manpreet 2 years ago

If you're looking for a purely financial answer (ignoring the social/environmental aspects) there are a few different ways you can look at it.

For these types of improvements the simplest is a payback calculation. How long would it take you to recoup the initial costs?

For example, if the entire installation cost $5,000 (including any tax credits), and you save $100 per month (I'm making both numbers up), you'll pay back your investment in 50 months, or about 4 years.

(Note that if you borrow money to do the improvement, then your payback period is longer because you're reducing the amount that you're saving each month by paying interest.)

If you're deciding between different uses for the money (like investing, or paying down other debt) then you can look at the return that you're getting. Using the same example, you are spending $5,000 and getting $100 per month back, for a 24% annual return ($1,200 / $5,000), which is better than you can get on almost anything but a 401(k) match (meaning don't stop your 401(k) contributions to do this either).

The decision on whether or wait or not then becomes - will the price drop faster than the amount of savings you will realize. So if you will save $100 per month in your electric bill, is the price of the complete installation going down by more than $100 each month? If not, you'd be better off buying now and start paying back the investment sooner.


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